AMJ Financial Blog

Category: Market Commentary

Market Commentary – October 16, 2017

There’s a new kid in town: narrative economics. Last week, Richard Thaler was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics. His work in behavioral economics and finance recognizes not all economic and financial decisions are made after rational reflection. In Nudge, he wrote: “The workings of the human brain are more than a bit befuddling. How… Read More

Market Commentary – October 9, 2017

Slow and steady… It has been 332 days since the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) Index experienced a 5 percent drop, reported Barron’s. If there isn’t a selloff on Monday or Tuesday, this will become the longest rally without such a drop. During this period, the Index has gained 33 percent. Think about that… Read More

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Market Commentary – October 2, 2017

A lot happened during the third quarter of 2017, but not much changed. The bull market in U.S. stocks continued to charge ahead. Traditional measures of valuation continued to suggest the market is overvalued, but some analysts argued it’s different this time. The Economist explained: “The current [cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings] ratio of 31 suggests that stocks… Read More

Market Commentary – September 25, 2017

Geopolitics, what is it good for? Absolutely nothin’! In January, Robert Kahn of the Council on Foreign Relations wrote in Global Economics Monthly: “Markets showed impressive resilience in the face of a range of geopolitical shocks in 2016, but recent market moves suggest this year could be different…It should be the year that global geopolitical… Read More

Market Commentary – Sept. 18, 2017

“In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice, in practice there is.” Yogi Berra was talking about baseball, but the concept also applies to diversification, according to the GMO White Paper, The S&P 500: Just Say No. From the title, you might think the authors – Matt Kadnar and James Montier – don’t… Read More

Market Commentary – Sept. 11, 2017

Last week, the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey and potency of Hurricane Irma dominated hearts and minds, but there were some diversions and some welcome news, too. The NFL kicked off its 2017 season with the Chiefs’ win over the Patriots. The men’s U.S. soccer team tied Honduras to stay in the running for a World… Read More

Market Commentary – September 5, 2017

When it comes to economic growth, the government doesn’t measure twice. It measures three times. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its initial estimate that the gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services produced by a country or region, grew by 2.6 percent during the second quarter… Read More

Market Commentary – August 28, 2017

Hope floats. Optimism about possible pro-growth economic policies, including tax reform and deregulation, helped U.S. stock indices finish higher last week, reported Barron’s. It wasn’t all smooth sailing, though. Stocks bobbed up and down as investors’ optimism was weighted by concerns about a possible debt-ceiling battle and government shutdown. CNN offered some insight to the… Read More

Market Commentary – August 7, 2017

Who’s been buying shares of company stock? Since the start of the bull market in 2009, U.S. companies have been buying their own stock. Stock buybacks peaked during the first three quarters of 2016 and have dropped off sharply since then, reports Financial Times citing a report from Goldman Sachs. Companies participate in stock buyback… Read More

Market Commentary – July 31, 2017

There was some good news and some bad news last week. First, the good news: Thanks to consumer spending and an upturn in federal government spending, the U.S. economy grew faster from April through June this year. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.6 percent during the period, according to the advance estimate for economic… Read More